By ISAAC HOLT
On February 22, 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, escalating a regional conflict that had been going on for almost 10 years. This ongoing war is the largest conflict and subsequent refugee crisis that Europe has seen since WW2. For Ukraine, the war has brought immense suffering and loss of life, according to a Pentagon statement about the conflict in August of this year almost 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 10,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed since the start of the invasion. Ukraine’s infrastructure has been subjected to a prolonged, intense campaign of drone and missile bombardment from Russian forces. These attacks have had a multitude of effects: Ukrainian cultural sites, energy infrastructure, and major urban centers are just some of the parts of Ukraine that have been extensively destroyed by Russia’s relentless assault.
Currently, the frontlines are mostly static in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. In June the Ukrainian government announced it had begun launching counter offensives against Russian forces in these regions, but so far only marginal gains have been made by Ukrainian forces. A report from the Pentagon this summer stated that Ukrainian forces have shown resilience in fighting the Russians, however, they are plagued by problems like ammunition shortages, Russian air dominance, and heavily damaged civil infrastructure which all limit their operational ability.
Since the start of the war, Ukraine and its people have shown a profound will to resist the invaders. When Russian forces were mere miles away from Kyiv less than two months into the invasion, Ukrainian forces were able to counterattack and push the Russian forces attacking from the north back to the border. Additionally, Ukraine’s civilian population has played a vital role in resisting the Russian invasion and serving Ukraine’s civil defense. Since the invasion, more than one million Ukrainian men have been drafted into the military, with nearly all of them being committed to the frontline. In areas currently or previously occupied by the Russian military, Ukrainian military and civilian partisan units have conducted campaigns against the occupying forces including assassinations, sabotage, and intelligence gathering.
With significant support from countries like the United States, Germany, and France, Ukraine has steadily leveled the playing field with the Russian military on a tactical and strategic level. From the U.S. alone, Ukraine has received almost $44 billion in military aid since the invasion began last year. This number does not include the intelligence aspect of U.S. aid, massive support has been given to Ukraine in the form of strategic intelligence and operational methods for Ukraine’s defense apparatus.
Over time materiel aid to Ukraine has increased significantly as Ukraine’s strategic aim changes from holding off the Russian assault to launching offensives to expel the Russian forces from their territory. Initially, the U.S. was only sending Ukraine shipments of light weaponry and old army stocks to replace their immediate tactical losses. The most recent aid shipments have included mobile rocket artillery, advanced anti-air/UAV systems, and large quantities (in the hundreds of millions) of heavy and light ammunition. This type of aid is vital for Ukraine’s military to successfully mount counter offensives and recapture territory.
Through its sustained air superiority since the invasion, Russia has been able to strike targets deep in Ukrainian territory in a massive proportion. However, these air attacks are not indiscriminate and follow patterns that emerge from various factors present on the battlefield, including weather.
Just as it affects every other aspect of life, winter will soon present fundamental problems for both sides of the conflict. Russia, just as it did last winter, will likely try to plunge Ukraine into a dark, cold winter by attacking its power generation and supply facilities. Historically, using winter as a weapon in war is not a new concept, events like the Berlin Blockade, the German-Soviet War, and the Korean War all serve as historical examples of how winter can affect military and civilian populations in times of war. The vulnerability of civilians and civil infrastructure during winter makes them a prime target for military forces seeking to destroy their enemies’ will to resist.
In the winter of 2022-2023, Russian forces comprehensively destroyed huge portions of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. According to a New York Times report, an estimated 61% of Ukraine’s electricity generation capabilities were destroyed by the end of the winter. This added to problems Ukraine was already facing with water supply, cell network access, and civil defense facilities which had been heavily damaged by Russian bombing. These attacks by Russia were not just aimed at Ukraine’s physical infrastructure, by striking vital civilian services Russia is trying to make the war affect every level of Ukrainian society. For the 2023-2024 winter Ukraine will have to maintain its tactical and strategic standing on the frontline, and defend its interior territory from Russia’s bombing campaign to stay in the fight.
This winter will again test Ukraine’s ability to resist the Russian forces, and it poses a larger question to the international community about the future of the conflict and the possibility of escalation. During the 2022-2023 winter and for most of the conflict up until the past few months, Ukraine has only possessed short-range artillery and missile systems, most of which are antiquated and not capable of accurately striking targets behind the frontline. Ukraine now possesses a growing fleet of long-range drones and missiles, some supplied by foreign allies, and has expressed its intention to use them against Russia to protect its power grid. One of the most prominent of these weapon systems is the ATACMS, a U.S.-made missile that was supplied to Ukraine in October of this year. The ATACMS allows Ukraine to strike almost any Russian target in its occupied territory all the way to the internationally recognized border; this presents many new challenges to Russian military assets in occupied Ukrainian territory.
For both sides, the potential for Ukraine to respond to Russian attacks on their energy infrastructure has major ramifications. Russian civilian and military authorities have stated repeatedly that any attacks on their country will be treated as threats to the Russian state, hinting at the possibility of nuclear escalation. Multiple times throughout this conflict the Russian military has placed its nuclear forces on alert and engaged in ‘nuclear exercises’ to simulate the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Recently, Vladimir Putin announced his intention to deploy tactical nuclear munitions in neighboring Belarus, just 45 miles north of Kyiv.
Looking at the future of the Russo-Ukrainian War, it is important to understand the uncertainty of war and the possibility of unexpected outcomes from military operations. Ukraine has had to adapt every level of its military and civilian defense apparatus to fight the Russians, these changes are ongoing and will not be fully known until the conflict’s conclusion. For the United States and the international community, our role in ending this conflict is as important as those fighting it. As we have seen many times, the war between Ukraine and Russia can cause major problems for the wider region and the entire globe. Confronting the ongoing crisis for food, energy, and economic problems that have arisen from the war will require efforts from the entire international community to be remedied.
Featured Image Credit: Reuters
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